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Philip Tetlock |
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QUICK FACTS (via Freebase)
Philip E. Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He has also written several non-fiction books on politics, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (with Aaron Belkin; 1996) and "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?".
His Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2005) describes a twenty-year study in which 284 experts in many fields, from professors to journalists, and with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers, were asked to make 28,000 predictions about the future, finding that they were only slightly more accurate than chance, and worse than basic computer algorithms which was the recipient of the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Dr. Tetlock was awarded the Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and Robert E. Lane Award for best book in...... (Read more on Wikipedia)
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162 days ago |
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Reading Tarot on K Street - — From the September/October 2009 issue of The National Interest. — Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat, The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), 272 pp., $27.95. |
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